'Liberation Day' Tariffs Target the 'Dirty 15' (2025)

We are just a week away from what Trump is calling 'liberation day'—the day the US plans to roll out 'reciprocal tariffs' on certain trading partners. These are not just any partners, but those with a trade surplus, affectionately dubbed the 'Dirty 15' by the American administration. This moniker, reminiscent of a Robert Aldrich film, suggests a group of '15 profiteers'. While the final roster of these so-called 'profiteers' is still under wraps, it's safe to assume it includes countries with the largest trade surpluses with the U.S. Think China, Mexico, Japan, Canada, Germany, India, Ireland, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, Italy, and Switzerland. Let's not forget the European Union as a whole, a bloc that has often found itself in the crosshairs of the White House. As we edge closer to this tariff D-Day, the global trade community watches with bated breath. Will these tariffs reshape international trade dynamics, or are they just another chapter in the ongoing saga of trade tensions?

The 2nd of April, next Wednesday, is a pivotal date for the markets, because it will allow them to see a little more clearly in the ambient cacophony of Donald Trump's tariff threats. His supporters suggest that the American president is knowingly maintaining organized chaos, while his detractors mock his about-turns and his blunt statements. Whichever camp investors fall into, they want more visibility and fewer punchlines.

While Trump may have christened the day as America's Liberation Day, investors are not exactly popping the champagne. Corporate America is on edge, wary of what it sees as unpredictable policy changes and a seeming disregard for recession warnings. In this climate, oil prices have nudged upward. At the same time, the prospect of copper surtaxes arriving sooner than expected has sent the industrial metal's prices soaring.

Also keep an eye on: February's Durable Goods data, the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, and earnings from Jefferies, Dollar Tree, Chewy, Cintas, and Petco.

Traders are keeping a keen eye on the U.S.-Russia talks, as Moscow has signaled a willingness to agree to a Black Sea cease-fire. However, there's a catch: they want certain banking sanctions lifted. Despite the diplomatic dance, analysts predict that any deal will have little effect on the physical oil market.

Meanwhile, Trump and two top intelligence officials have denied allegations that classified information about military strikes in Yemen was shared via a group chat on a non-government service. Democrats have pounced on the alleged security breach, calling it reckless and dangerous. Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, and John Ratcliffe, Director of the CIA, have reassured Congress that the chat among senior officials about a potential strike against Houthi militants earlier this month did not involve any classified information.

Yesterday, Wall Street pulled off a late-day rally, turning a rocky start into a modest victory for the S&P 500, which edged up by 0.16%. The Nasdaq 100, buoyed by opportunistic buying of beleaguered tech and cyclical stocks, added 0.5% to its rebound from the previous day. Meanwhile, defensive sectors were left in the dust. Yet, the notion of a recovery following the early-year slump remains tenuous, as skepticism lingers. Recent U.S. indicators reveal waning consumer confidence, raising the billion-dollar question: Can the American consumer muster the resilience to endure short-term hardships for the potential prosperity promised by Trump? Financial expert Ed Yardeni captured the sentiment, noting, "The problem is that we Americans don't handle pain very well." Consumer sentiment has been a cornerstone of economic momentum since the decade's start, making "animal spirits" crucial for the short-term economic forecast. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan highlights the potent mix of emotions and uncertainty amid erratic U.S. policy. "Animal spirits," a Keynesian term, refers to the irrational tendencies within economic agents—consumers, in this case.

In the Asia Pacific region, Sydney's stock market is on a roll, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains. The ASX 200 index still has a journey ahead to reach its February peak, but the previous decline has been arrested. Interestingly, it's not the mining giants but the financial sector that's driving Australian stocks upward. Meanwhile, markets in Taiwan, India, and mainland China remain relatively unchanged. Japan's market climbed 0.8%, marking its ninth rise in ten sessions. South Korea made a robust comeback with a 1.1% increase, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong managed a modest recovery of 0.4% after a significant drop the previous day. As for Europe, the leading indices are bearish.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full economic calendar here.

• GBP / USD: US$1.29
• Gold: US$3,024.99
• Crude Oil (BRENT): US$73.3
• US 10-year: 4.34%
• BITCOIN: US$87,620.9

In corporate news:

• Teslais expanding into the Saudi Arabian market, launching on April 10, amid investor optimism about its robotaxi prospects despite a decline in European sales.
• Phillips 66has filed a preliminary proxy statement for its 2025 annual meeting, proposing new board members in response to a lawsuit from Elliott Investment Management.
• is in discussions to purchase Lumen Technologies' consumer fiber operations for over $5.5 billion.
• GameStophas announced incorporating Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, leading to a surge in its share price.
• Dollar Treehas agreed to sell its Family Dollar division for approximately $1 billion.
• Applewill launch the iPhone 16 series in Indonesia on April 11 and hold its annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) online from June 9-13, 2025.
• ADMhas reduced jobs in its grain trading division and decreased its CEO's compensation for 2024 due to accounting issues and cost pressures.
• OpenAIis constructing its first data center.
• Activision Blizzardemployees have voted to unionize with the Communications Workers of America (CWA).
• Meta Platforms Inc.has launched an educational initiative on Instagram to combat cyberbullying through a new School Partnership program.

Analyst Recommendations:

• CarMax Inc. - Stephens Inc analyst Jeff Lick raised the recommendation to overweight from equal-weight. PT set to $90, implies a 21% increase from the last price.
• Guess: Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey cut the target to $13 from $18. Maintains market perform rating. New PT implies an 11% increase from the last price.
• Micron Technology Inc.: China Renaissance analyst Guohan Wang cut the recommendation to hold from buy. PT set to $84, implies an 11% decrease from the last price.
• Papa John's International Inc.: Stifel analyst Christopher O'Cull cut the target to $40 from $45. Maintains hold rating. Stifel moved its target to the low end of the range, implying a 1.4% decrease from the last price.
• Range Resources Corp. - Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott raised the recommendation to equal-weight from underweight.
• RH: Guggenheim Securities cut the target to $500 from $550. Maintains buy rating. New PT implies a 98% increase from the last price.
• Shake Shack Inc. Class A - Wells Fargo Securities initiated coverage with a recommendation of equal-weight. PT set to $95, implies a 0.4% decrease from the last price.
• Tenet Healthcare Corp.: Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with a recommendation of overweight. PT set to $165, implies a 26% increase from the last price.
• Waters Corp.: Baird analyst Catherine Ramsey Schulte raised the recommendation to outperform from neutral. PT set to $407, implies a 10% increase from the last price.